Protect the Democratic Senate majority
Preserving Democrats’ congressional majorities is Swing Left’s top strategic priority in 2022. To do so, we are supporting Democratic candidates in seven target Senate races in 2022—the reelection campaigns of Senators Mark Kelly in Arizona, Raphael Warnock in Georgia, Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire, and the eventual Democratic nominees in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Democratic defense races:
Arizona
Sen. Mark Kelly won this seat in 2020’s special election by just 2.4%, becoming the first Democrat to hold this seat since 1969. While Arizona has shifted towards Democrats in recent years, Sen. Kelly faces a difficult path to reelection. Arizona and Georgia are the two reddest states currently represented by Democrats up for reelection in 2022. Particularly in an election cycle with a Democrat in the White House, Sen. Kelly faces one of the country’s most competitive races for reelection.
Georgia
Sen. Rev. Raphael Warnock helped deliver the Senate majority for Democrats in the 2021 runoff election, winning this seat by just 2.0%. Georgia promises to once again be the center of the political universe in 2022 with marquee races for Senate and governor, and keeping Sen. Warnock in office is essential to Democrats’ success in 2022.
Nevada
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a challenging path to winning a second full term in 2022. Nevada Democrats have gutted out narrow victories in each of the last 4 federal statewide elections by an average margin of just 3.0%. This year, with Biden in the White House, electoral trends moving against Democrats, and Trump’s hand-picked candidate already out on the campaign trail, Democrats cannot take anything for granted in the Silver State. Sen. Cortez Masto’s seat is a must-win if Democrats hope to preserve and grow their majority in the Senate.
New Hampshire
Sen. Maggie Hassan flipped her seat in 2016 by only 1,017 votes, delivering a victory in one of the most competitive races that year. The path to victory will again be challenging in 2022, with the GOP making this race one of their biggest targets this election cycle, regardless of the eventual Republican nominee. With a popular Republican governor on the ballot and a Democrat in the White House, defending Sen. Maggie Hassan’s seat will be crucial to maintaining control of the Senate.
Flippable GOP races:
North Carolina
While Democrats fell just short in North Carolina in 2020, the retirement of Sen. Richard Burr (R), sets up another great opportunity for Democrats to pick up a seat in North Carolina. Since President Obama’s election in 2008, Democrats have long been close, but have never quite broken through. In the last three elections, the average presidential and Senate races have been decided by an average of just 2.3% and 3.0%. 2022 can be the year Democrats finally flip North Carolina blue again by electing former North Carolina Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley.
Ohio
Ohio has been moving away from Democrats in recent election cycles, but this year's Senate race presents a unique opportunity for Democrats to expand the map. Rep. Tim Ryan has represented Ohio in Congress since first winning election in 2002 at the age of 29. He has leveraged his deep ties to the state against one of the weakest GOP Senate nominees of the cycle, venture capitalist J.D. Vance, to build a consistent polling lead. Democrats can expand their majority in November by electing Tim Ryan to this seat.
Pennsylvania
The Keystone State helped deliver Joe Biden the presidency, and this year it has the opportunity to deliver an expanded Senate majority to Democrats. As in North Carolina, incumbent Senator Pat Toomey (R) is not seeking reelection, presenting another great opportunity for Democrats. Pennsylvania has been the ultimate swing state in recent years, swinging from Democrats to Republicans in successive elections from 2012 to 2016 to 2020. This year, Democrats have an opportunity to continue their current run of statewide success by electing Democratic nominee John Fetterman and flipping the state’s second Senate seat.
Wisconsin
Republican Senator Ron Johnson is the only Republican incumbent running for Senate in a state that voted for Democrats in 2020. This makes him uniquely vulnerable, even in an election year with a Democrat in the White House. One of former President Trump’s most loyal allies in the Senate, Johnson has grown into one of the most extremist right-wing senators in office over the last five years. The stakes will again be high in Wisconsin, the “tipping point” state in the 2020 presidential election, as the state will also host a marquee gubernatorial race. Democrats have the opporunity to elect Mandela Barnes and flip this seat in the 2022 midterms.
Races to watch
We will be monitoring a group of races to see how the circumstances on the ground develop and may add to our target list throughout the cycle. While Senate races have recently tracked the state’s presidential voting history quite closely, notable candidates in certain states still have the ability to upend a race. We will continue to evaluate potential additions to our lists of targets and races to watch on a quarterly basis.
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As we move past the Trump presidency and look ahead to 2022 and beyond, we must move from resistance to persistence—with an all-hands-on-deck effort to protect our Democratic majorities and deliver a wave of GOP defeats at the ballot box. We need you on our team.
