Protect the Democratic Senate majority
Defending the Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate is one of Swing Left’s top strategic priorities in 2024. A Senate majority will be crucial in preventing a nationwide abortion ban, fighting for smart climate and gun legislation, and confirming judicial nominations.
To secure this majority, we are supporting Democratic candidates in seven target Senate races: Ruben Gallego in Arizona, the eventual Democratic nominee in Michigan, and the reelection campaigns of Senators Jon Tester in Montana, Jacky Rosen in Nevada, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin.
Democratic defense races:
Arizona
Senate margin of victory: 2.4% (2018) / 4.9% (2022)
While Arizona has shifted towards Democrats in recent years, Democrat Ruben Gallego faces a difficult race against incumbent—and newly Independent—Senator Kyrsten Sinema and MAGA extremist Kari Lake, who lost Arizona's 2022 gubernatorial election by just 0.7%.
Both the seat and state are crucial for Democrats in 2024: the presidential election hinges on winning purple states like Arizona, while the Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate hinges on the outcome of this race.
Michigan
Senate margin of victory: 6.5% (2018) / 1.7% (2020)
With the retirement of Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow, Democrats' ability to retain this seat is less certain heading into 2024. Popular congresswoman (and Swing Left alum) Elissa Slotkin is leading the Democratic field, while Republicans contest with a crowded primary.
Michigan has been trending blue since its independent redistricting commission broke the MI GOP’s gerrymander—culminating in a Democratic state trifecta following the 2022 midterms. Trump carried Michigan in 2016, while Biden narrowly won the state in 2020. The 2024 election will determine if Michigan is a blue or purple state.
Montana
Senate margin of victory: 3.5% (2018) / -10% (2020)
In 2024, Senator Jon Tester is the Democratic incumbent running in one of the reddest states in the country. Senator Tester's ability to continuously outperform expectations in the state is attributed to his authenticity and the connection he has built with Montana voters. Republicans have long targeted Tester, and the GOP is prepared to spend big in 2024 in their attempt to win this seat.
Nevada
Senate margin of victory: 4% (2018) / 0.77% (2022)
Senator Jacky Rosen faces a challenging path to winning in 2024. Democrats' margins in Nevada have been shrinking in recent cycles–losing the gubernatorial race, narrowly winning key U.S. House races, and Senator Cortez Masto winning by less than 1% in 2022. Senator Rosen's seat is a must-win if Democrats hope to preserve their majority in the Senate.
Ohio
Senate margin of victory: 6.8% (2018) / -6.2% (2022)
Though Ohio has trended increasingly red since 2016, recent statewide ballot measure wins for abortion access and marijuana legalization have challenged the notion that progressive wins are not possible in the Buckeye state. This is good news for Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, who has historically outperformed Ohio Republicans, winning by 6.8% in the 2018 election after Trump handily won by 500,000 votes in 2016.
The path to victory will be challenging in 2024, as the GOP makes this race one of their biggest targets this election cycle, regardless of the eventual Republican nominee. Defending Senator Brown’s seat will be crucial to maintaining control of the Senate.
Pennsylvania
Senate margin of victory: 13.1% (2018) / 5% (2022)
Despite Senator Bob Casey winning a third term reelection in 2018 by more than 13%, Republicans have been narrowing that gap in recent statewide elections.
The good news is Democrats were able to flip the Pennsylvania State House in 2022—securing a one seat majority—and won a hotly-contested state Supreme Court race in 2023.
Wisconsin
Senate margin of victory: 10.8% (2018) / -1% (2022)
Democrats narrowly lost the 2022 Senate race between Senator Ron Johnson and Mandela Barnes, despite Senator Tammy Baldwin winning by double digits in 2018.
Although Wisconsin remains a purple state, Republican gerrymandering has resulted in the WI GOP forming near-supermajorities in both state legislative chambers. With the 2023 election of WI Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz, the court flipped to a liberal majority—ushering in the opportunity to redraw legislative maps. With the potential for fair maps in 2024 and the looming presidential election, Senator Baldwin is looking to capitalize on high voter turnout to secure reelection.
Races to watch
We will be monitoring the Senate races in Florida and Texas to see how the circumstances on the ground develop, and may add these to our target list later in the cycle. While Senate races have recently tracked the state’s presidential voting history quite closely, notable candidates in certain states still have the ability to upend a race. We will continue to evaluate potential additions to our lists of targets and races to watch on a quarterly basis.
Featured fund
2024 Senate Fund
Make a strategic investment to help the Democrats running in AZ, MI, MT, NV, OH, PA, and WI win in 2024. 100% of your donation will go directly to the most competitive races on the path to defend the U.S. Senate majority.
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