Flip the U.S. House

Working to win back the House is a fundamental piece of the "stop Trump" strategy. It puts a necessary check on the MAGA agenda, and it's Step One in removing Republicans from federal office, full stop.

With the narrowest House majority in almost 100 years, winning the House is doable.

To get there, we're focusing our efforts on competitive swing districts where the last election came down to a few thousand (or a few hundred!) votes. And we’re trying to win as many of those races as possible, to flip the House by a margin too big to challenge, contest, or steal. Every competitive race on our map is part of building a Democratic majority that holds.

By taking action now, we're laying the foundation to win this year and again in the future.

Jump to races:

Must-Flip Races

The most competitive GOP-held seats, where margins will be razor-thin and outcomes will determine which party controls the chamber.

AK-AL


R - Incumbent: Nick Begich III
I - Challenger: Bill Hill

Independent Bill Hill is running to reclaim Alaska's at-large seat, with the ability to win over Republican and independent voters in a state that went for Trump by double digits. A win in Alaska would be one of the most consequential upsets of the entire cycle and could be the seat that decides the House majority.

AZ-01


R - Open Seat: Jay Feely
D - Open Seat: Amish Shah

This open Phoenix-area seat is a genuine toss up in a district with an even partisan lean. Democratic nominee Amish Shah is competing against Republican Jay Feely to flip this seat in November. Dr. Shah, a former state representative, ran in this district in 2024 and enters the race in a strong position to defeat Feely, a former professional football player who had Trump’s support in the Republican primary.

AZ-02


R - Incumbent: Eli Crane
D - Challenger: Jonathan Nez

Rep. Eli Crane's northern Arizona district, which includes the Navajo Nation and Flagstaff, proved more competitive than expected at the end of the 2024 cycle thanks to a strong effort by former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez. He is running again this cycle, looking to build on 2024, including driving up turnout among Native voters.


AZ-06

R - Incumbent: Juan Ciscomani
D - Challenger: JoAnna Mendoza

JoAnna Mendoza, a former Marine Corps drill instructor, is taking on Rep. Juan Ciscomani in a Southern Arizona district that Ciscomani has won twice by razor-thin margins. She's built a formidable fundraising operation, and Democrats are confident that a favorable national environment will finally push this seat into the blue column.

CA-22


R - Incumbent: David Valadao
D - Challenger: Randy Villegas

This majority-Latino Central Valley seat is a top Democratic flip target after redistricting made it more competitive. Rep. David Valadao cast the deciding vote for the Republican budget bill that cuts an estimated $1 trillion from Medicaid over a decade, betraying nearly two-thirds of his constituents who rely on Medi-Cal. Randy Villegas, a local school board member, is offering voters a strong contrast.


CA-48

R - Open Seat: Jim Desmond
D - Open Seat: Marni von Wilpert

This San Diego-to-Palm Springs district became an open-seat opportunity after Republican Rep. Darrell Issa announced his retirement just ahead of the filing deadline. This district narrowly voted for Harris in 2024 and San Diego City Councilor Marni von Wilpert is strongly positioned to flip this seat.

CO-05


R - Incumbent: Jeff Crank
D - Challenger: Jessica Killin

Veteran Jessica Killin is putting together a strong campaign in this district, which is one of the few Republican-held seats in the country that has been becoming bluer. As the demographics of the district change, particularly from younger families moving from the Denver metro area looking for more affordable housing, Democrats have benefited, and with a strong top-of-the-ticket in Colorado, Killin is well-poised for an upset.

CO-08


R - Incumbent: Gabe Evans
D - Challenger: Manny Rutinel

This district north of Denver is one of the most genuinely competitive in the country, rated a toss up against first-term Republican Rep. Gabe Evans. Democrats have nominated Manny Rutinel, an environmental attorney and state representative. Rutinel has proven to be a strong fundraiser, and Evans’ support for Trump and his unpopular immigration policies will hurt him with voters in this district with a large Latino population.


IA-02

R - Open Seat: Joe Mitchell
D - Open Seat: Lindsay James

Rep. Ashley Hinson is leaving this northeastern Iowa seat to run for the Senate, opening it up for the first time in years in a state being affected by tariffs and Republican budget cuts. State Representative Lindsay James, a chaplain and mother, is running against former State Representative Joe Mitchell, who has become a multimillionaire lobbyist since leaving the legislature. James will benefit from a strong top-of-ticket turnout effort, including by Rob Sand, the Democratic candidate for governor, who is from this district and over-performed here in his reelection as state auditor.


IA-01

R - Incumbent: Mariannette Miller-Meeks
D - Challenger: Christina Bohannan

Democrat Christina Bohannan came within 799 votes of flipping this seat in 2024, making this one of the most tantalizingly close rematches in the country. With the Iowa economy battered by tariffs, this is one of the party's best shots at a flip.


IA-03

R - Incumbent: Zach Nunn
D - Challenger: Sarah Trone Garriott

State Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott is running in the Des Moines-area district against Rep. Zach Nunn. Trone Garriott is the only Democrat in Iowa to flip two Republican-held state senate seats, including one in a district Governor Kim Reynolds carried by seven points, proving her crossover appeal in exactly the kind of swing territory this race will be decided.

MI-04


R - Incumbent: Bill Huizenga
D - Challenger: Sean McCann

Democratic state Senator Sean McCann is taking on eight-term Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga in a west Michigan district that has been trending blue for years. National investment in this seat signals that Democrats believe it's finally within reach in a strong midterm environment with a proven vote-getter in McCann.

MI-07


R - Incumbent: Tom Barrett
D - Challenger: William Lawrence

This Lansing-area seat is held by first-term Rep. Tom Barrett. He is being challenged by activist Will Lawrence. In a Michigan cycle supercharged by the open governor's race and a hotly contested Senate primary, this toss-up seat is one Democrats can win with strong organizing and resources.


MI-10

R - Open Seat: Michael Bouchard
D - Open Seat: Christina Hines

Republican Rep. John James is vacating this Macomb County seat to run for governor, creating one of the most competitive open-seat opportunities in the Midwest. Democrat Christina Hines is a local prosecutor with a strong record serving her community. The last time this seat was open, the Democrat nearly won despite no national investment. 

NE-02


R - Open Seat: Brinker Harding
D - Open Seat: Denise Powell

Based in Omaha, NE-02 is the state’s famous "blue dot" and a genuine Democratic flip opportunity now that Republican Rep. Don Bacon has retired. Democrat Denise Powell is running a strong campaign against Republican Omaha City Councilor Brinker Harding to claim this seat, and flipping it would not only add a House seat but could also again split Nebraska's Electoral College vote.

MN-01


R - Incumbent: Brad Finstad
D - Challenger: Jake Johnson

Jake Johnson, a high school teacher, is seeking to follow in the steps of another former high school teacher —Minnesota Governor Tim Walz—who flipped this district in the 2006 blue wave. Johnson has proven to be a strong fundraiser and polling has shown that he is running competitively with Finstad. He will also benefit from sharing the ballot with Senator Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic candidate for governor, who has won this district in all of her elections.

NY-17


R - Incumbent: Mike Lawler
D - Challenger: Cait Conley

This Hudson Valley seat is one of the few Republican-held districts nationwide to back Harris, making Rep. Mike Lawler one of the most uniquely vulnerable incumbents in the country. Democrats nominated veteran and national security expert Cait Conley, a native of the district, who has proven to be a strong fundraiser. Flipping this seat would be a major prize in the path to a House majority.


NJ-07

R - Incumbent: Tom Kean Jr.
D - Challenger: Rebecca Bennett

This New Jersey seat, held by Rep. Tom Kean Jr., is one of the most genuinely competitive in the country. Kean is unpopular with independents, and polling shows Democrats have an opening, especially after Governor Mikie Sherrill won here in 2025. Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot, is running a strong campaign against Kean, who missed over 100 days of votes this year.

OH-07


R - Incumbent: Max Miller
D - Challenger: Brian Poindexter

After explosive allegations of domestic abuse, Republican Rep. Max Miller has refused to drop out of the race. Democrats already had a strong candidate in Ironworker and union leader Brian Poindexter, and recent polling has shown him leading Rep. Miller.


NC-11

R - Open Seat: Jennifer Balkcom
D - Open Seat: Jamie Ager

Well-known farmer and businessman Jamie Ager won the Democratic primary in this western North Carolina district that has been trending toward Democrats for a decade. With the slow pace of federal Hurricane Helene aid fueling deep frustration with Republicans, 2026 is Democrats' best shot yet at flipping this seat. Ager’s family has a long history in North Carolina politics and incumbent Rep. Chuck Edwards suspended his campaign because of a House Ethics Committee investigation into sexual misconduct allegations. Republicans have chosen state representative Jennifer Balkcom to replace him on the ballot, but she has less than three months to put together a real campaign.


PA-01

R - Incumbent: Brian Fitzpatrick
D - Challenger: Bob Harvie

This Bucks and Montgomery County district narrowly voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, making it a perennial Democratic target despite Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick's ability to overperform his party. With the environment favorable to Democrats, this is exactly the kind of seat we can flip. Democrat Bob Harvie, the chair of the Bucks County Commission, is a popular and respected local leader, and has been highlighting Rep. Fitzpatrick’s votes for the Iran War and to cut health care.


PA-07

R - Incumbent: Ryan Mackenzie
D - Challenger: Bob Brooks

This Lehigh Valley seat was flipped by Republicans in 2024, and taking it back is one of Democrats' top priorities in Pennsylvania. Democrats have nominated Bob Brooks, the president of the state firefighters union, who is mounting a serious challenge against freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. Brooks has strong support from popular Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro, who is expected to perform well in this district and help Brooks win.

PA-08


R - Incumbent: Rob Bresnahan
D - Challenger: Paige Cognetti

Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti is running to reclaim this northeastern Pennsylvania seat, which Republicans flipped in 2024. Cognetti launched her campaign by targeting Rep. Rob Bresnahan over ethics concerns around his stock trading while in office, giving Democrats a sharp contrast message in a working-class district.


PA-10

R - Incumbent: Scott Perry
D - Challenger: Janelle Stelson

Democrat Janelle Stelson came within 5,100 votes of ousting Rep. Scott Perry in 2024, and she is back with even stronger momentum in a race rated as one of the most competitive in Pennsylvania. The district is trending, the energy is there, and this cycle presents an opportunity for a strong pickup. This is a race where a small number of votes could flip a seat and deal a direct blow to the Republican majority.

TX-15


R - Incumbent: Monica De La Cruz
D - Challenger: Bobby Pulido

Tejano music star Bobby Pulido won the Democratic nomination to challenge incumbent Rep. Monica De La Cruz in this competitive South Texas district, bringing name recognition and deep community ties to a race that could be competitive in the environment favorable to Democrats.

VA-01


R - Incumbent: Rob Wittman
D - Challenger: Shannon Taylor

Rep. Rob Wittman has held VA-01 for nearly two decades. However, shifting demographics and a favorable environment for Democrats have put this race on the map. Shannon Taylor, the elected prosecutor in Henrico County, is the strongest challenger Wittman has faced in years and is well-positioned to win in this district that Governor Abigail Spanberger carried last year.

VA-02


R - Incumbent: Jen Kiggans
D - Challenger: Elaine Luria

Democrats are looking to reclaim this Hampton Roads seat in a district where Rep. Jen Kiggans is seen as one of the most vulnerable House Republicans, particularly amid federal cuts hitting a military-heavy community hard. Former Congresswoman Elaine Luria, also a Navy veteran, is in a strong position to reclaim this seat, which Governor Abigail Spanberger won in 2025.


WI-01

R - Incumbent: Bryan Steil
D - Challenger: Mitchell Berman

Rep. Bryan Steil represents a southeastern Wisconsin district that Democrats are targeting hard. With the open Wisconsin governor's race driving major Democratic turnout and Steil's unwavering support for Trump's unpopular agenda, this seat is well within reach in a wave environment. Recent polling has shown the candidates in a tight race, and the progressive candidate for the state Supreme Court carried the district by 15 points earlier this year.


WI-03

R - Incumbent: Derrick Van Orden
D - Challenger: Rebecca Cooke

Democrat Rebecca Cooke is again running against Rep. Derrick Van Orden in a western Wisconsin district that came within three points of flipping in 2024. Polling already shows Cooke leading as independents have moved sharply against the Republican incumbent, and with the open Wisconsin governor's race driving Democratic turnout statewide, this is one of the most flippable seats on the map.

Flip the House Fund

Winning the House is both possible and essential. Swing Left has determined the closest races that will decide control of the House in 2026—so you can focus your support where it counts. Give today and your donation is split to help flip the most competitive Republican-held districts.

Must-Hold Races

The most competitive Democratic-held seats, where margins will be razor-thin and outcomes will determine which party controls the chamber.

CA-13


D - Incumbent: Adam Gray
R - Challenger: Kevin Lincoln II

Rep. Adam Gray holds a Central Valley seat, and he's one of the Democrats proving the party can compete and win in California's agricultural heartland. Holding this seat is key to Democrats keeping the path to a House majority intact.


CA-45

D - Incumbent: Derek Tran
R - Challenger: Chuong Vo

Rep. Derek Tran flipped this Orange County seat in 2024 and is a top target for Republicans looking to claw it back. His re-election would cement Democratic gains in Southern California's changing suburbs, and he has proven to be a strong fundraiser.

FL-09


D - Incumbent: Darren Soto
R - Challenger: Dan Green

Republicans redrew this seat in an effort to defeat Rep. Darren Soto, making his new seat one that Trump would have won by 18% in 2024. Soto, however, is a strong candidate who outperformed Harris in his current district. Trump’s performance in 2024 overstates how Republican the district is—if the newly drawn district boundaries had been in place for the 2020 presidential election, Trump would have won by 6.8%. People of color are the majority of the population in the district. As Trump’s popularity, especially with Latino voters, has dropped significantly, Soto has an opening to bring voters back to the blue column.


FL-14

D - Incumbent: Kathy Castor
R - Challenger: Mike Beltran

Republicans redrew this seat in an effort to defeat Rep. Kathy Castor, making her new seat one that Trump would have won by 10.5% in 2024. Castor, however, is well-known in the Tampa Bay region and outperformed Harris in her current district. Trump’s performance in 2024 overstates how Republican the district is—if the newly drawn district boundaries had been in place for the 2020 presidential election, Trump would have won by a narrow 2.8%, giving Rep. Castor a real chance to hold her seat in a favorable political environment.

FL-25


D - Incumbent: Jared Moskowitz
R - Challenger: Scott Singer

Republicans redrew this seat in an effort to defeat Rep. Jared Moskowitz, making his new seat one that Trump would have won by 9.2% in 2024. Moskowitz, however, is a strong candidate who outperformed Harris in his current district. Trump’s performance in 2024 overstates how Republican-leaning the district is—if the newly drawn district boundaries had been in place for the 2020 presidential election, President Biden would have won this district by 5.1%. The district has significant Latino and Jewish populations. As Trump’s popularity, especially with Latino voters, has dropped significantly, Moskowitz has an opening to bring voters back to the blue column.

MI-08


D - Incumbent: Kristen McDonald Rivet
R - Challenger: Thomas Smith

Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet holds this suburban Detroit seat and enters 2026 with a strong fundraising advantage. Keeping her in office is essential to Democrats holding their path to the House majority in a state where the Senate and governor's races will drive massive turnout.


NJ-09

D - Incumbent: Nellie Pou
R - Challenger: Rosemary Pino

Rep. Nellie Pou holds this North Jersey seat that shifted strongly to the right in 2024, but Democratic Governor Mikie Sherrill performed well here in 2025. We need to ensure that Rep. Pou is reelected in this Democratic-leaning seat in order to help win a House majority.

NM-02


D - Incumbent: Gabe Vasquez
R - Challenger: Greg Cunningham

Rep. Gabe Vasquez is holding a competitive Southern New Mexico seat that Republicans will target hard, and he needs support to withstand attacks. This race is expected to be very close all the way to the very end.


NV-03

D - Incumbent: Susie Lee
R - Challenger: Marty O'Donnell

Rep. Susie Lee is running to defend her seat in the Las Vegas suburbs, which has been decided by razor-thin margins for three straight cycles. This is one of the most competitive House seats in the country. Nevada is set to be one of the biggest battleground states of the cycle, with a highly competitive gubernatorial race driving massive turnout.

NY-03


D - Incumbent: Tom Suozzi
R - Challenger: Michael LiPetri Jr.

Rep. Tom Suozzi is running to defend his seat. Republicans are targeting NY-03 aggressively this cycle, as it is one of the 13 Democratic-held seats that Trump carried in 2024. Democrats are working to hold this seat as Republicans look to make gains on Long Island, with a well-funded field already in place. Holding this district requires early investment and attention. With popular local Nassau County Executive Blake Blakeman leading the Republican ticket as the candidate for Governor, holding this seat will be especially challenging.


NY-04

D - Incumbent: Laura Gillen
R - Challenger: Jeanine Driscoll

Rep. Laura Gillen flipped this Long Island seat from Republicans in 2024 by just 8,600 votes, making her one of the most targeted Democratic incumbents in the state. Holding this seat is critical to defending Democratic gains in suburban New York, and her first term has focused on delivering results for a community that swung back to Democrats after years of Republican control. However, with popular local Nassau County Executive Blake Blakeman leading the Republican ticket as the candidate for Governor, holding this seat will be especially challenging.

NY-19


D - Incumbent: Josh Riley
R - Challenger: Peter Oberacker

Rep. Josh Riley holds this competitive upstate New York district covering the Southern Tier and Hudson Valley, where he won a tough rematch in 2024. He's built a strong fundraising base and a reputation for constituent services in a district that rewards pragmatic, results-oriented Democrats.

NC-01


D - Incumbent: Don Davis
R - Challenger: Laurie Buckhout

Rep. Don Davis remains one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the country and will be a top Republican target in 2026, defending a seat in a district Republicans have redrawn to make it even harder to hold. Davis has won two straight nail-biters and proven he can compete, but holding this seat will require every resource Swing Left can bring to bear in northeastern North Carolina.


OH-01

D - Incumbent: Greg Landsman
R - Challenger: Eric Conroy

Rep. Greg Landsman is defending one of the most competitive seats in the country, representing Cincinnati in a district Republicans deliberately gerrymandered to be harder for Democrats to hold. Republicans added deep-red Clinton County to the district and redrew it to favor Trump.

OH-09


D - Incumbent: Marcy Kaptur
R - Challenger: Derek Merrin

Rep. Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in Congressional history, is fighting to hold a seat Republicans deliberately gerrymandered to be nearly impossible for her to win. Trump won the redrawn district by over 10 points, and Republicans are targeting Kaptur as one of their top pickups in Ohio.


OH-13

D - Incumbent: Emilia Sykes
R - Challenger: Carey Coleman

Rep. Emilia Sykes represents a competitive district in the Akron area, and with Ohio set to be one of the biggest battleground states in 2026, ensuring she has the ability to run a strong campaign helps anchor the party's statewide organizing.

OR-05


D - Incumbent: Janelle Bynum
R - Challenger: Patti Adair

Rep. Janelle Bynum holds a competitive, Democratic-leaning seat in the Portland suburbs, and with the House majority on the line, every seat matters.


TX-34

D - Incumbent: Vicente Gonzalez
R - Challenger: Eric Flores

Rep. Vicente Gonzalez has beaten back Republican challengers twice in this district, which is composed of the area on the Gulf Coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, and he's doing it again in a seat that is one of just 13 House districts nationwide that elected a Democrat while being carried by Trump in 2024.


TX-35

D - Open Seat: Johnny Garcia
R - Open Seat: Carlos De La Cruz

Republicans redrew TX-35 to strip it away from Austin almost entirely and reshape it into a district anchored in San Antonio's suburbs and rural eastern Bexar County, flipping the partisan lean from safe Democratic to R+4. Democrats have nominated Bexar County deputy sheriff Johnny Garcia, whose strong campaign is keeping this seat in play despite the Republican gerrymander.


VA-07

D - Incumbent: Eugene Vindman
R - Challenger: Doug Ollivant

Rep. Eugene Vindman holds a competitive, Democratic-leaningNorthern Virginia district and is fighting to hold it in a cycle where every seat counts. Republicans have this race in their sights, making it a critical defensive hold for Democrats.

WA-03


D - Incumbent: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
R - Challenger: John Braun

Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez won with just 51.7% of the vote in 2024, and this is a district that has to be fought for every cycle. Republicans are going all in here, and early fundraising is already surging on both sides. Holding WA-03 is essential to any Democratic majority math.

Reach Races

Even though we won’t win all of these, every additional seat we do win is a buffer against the structural forces working against Democrats in the long-term. This is because every incumbent who wins in 2026 enters 2028 with an advantage: recent research shows that House incumbency confers roughly a 2.5 percentage point electoral advantage, as incumbents build name recognition, constituent relationships, and fundraising networks that challengers can't match.


ME-02

D: Matt Dunlap
R: Paul LePage

Rep. Jared Golden's retirement opens up a sprawling rural district that Trump carried by nearly 10 points in 2024, while Golden himself won re-election by less than one percent, making it the reddest district represented by a Democrat in the country. Polling shows Democrat Matt Dunlap, a former secretary of state, in a tight race with controversial former Governor Paul LePage.

NY-01


R - Open Seat: Nick LaLota
D - Open Seat: Chris Gallant

This district on the eastern end of Long Island shifted to the right in 2024, voting for Trump by 10.1%. In 2020, he would have only won the district by 1.8%, and as Trump’s policies continue to raise costs, there’s an opening for an upset victory by Democrats. Chris Gallant, a volunteer firefighter and member of the National Guard, is challenging Rep. Nick LaLota, and has a stronger profile than LaLota’s last opponent and has a shot in a favorable political environment. 

NY-21


R - Open Seat: Anthony Constantino
D - Open Seat: Blake Gendebien

After Trump withdrew her nomination to be UN Ambassador, Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik decided not to seek reelection, opening up her seat in the North Country. Dairy farmer Blake Gendebien is mounting a strong campaign against controversial Trump-backed businessman Anthony Constantino, who won a divisive Republican primary. Recent polling has shown a tight race and with a favorable political environment, Gendebien has an opportunity to pull off a real upset.


OH-10

R - Incumbent: Mike Turner
D - Challenger: Kristina Knickerbocker

After 24 years in Congress, Rep. Mike Turner has never faced a serious challenge in this Dayton-based district. Air Force veteran and oncology nurse practitioner Kristina Knickerbocker presents a clear contrast and can appeal to independents and moderate Republicans, having served at Wright-Patterson Air Force base, one of the largest employers and economic engines in the district. Trump won by 7.8% in 2024 and a more modest 5.8% in 2020, but with the favorable environment and a strong Democratic top-of-ticket, Knickerbocker is within reach of an upset.

SC-01


R - Open Seat: Jenny Honeycutt
D - Open Seat: Nancy Lacore  

Democrats flipped this Charleston-based seat in the 2018 midterms and are hoping for a repeat this year. While Trump won by 13% in 2024, his margin was more narrow in 2020, at 8.7%, and Democrats believe that retired Navy vice admiral Nancy Lacore has a strong profile and can put the seat in play.


TX-23

R: Brandon Herrera
D: Katy Padilla Stout

Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales resigned after an ethics probe, handing Democrats a rare opening in this sprawling border district that stretches from San Antonio westward along the U.S.-Mexico border to El Paso. Democrat Katy Padilla Stout won her primary outright and is already on the ground making the case that this district deserves better representation than her controversial opponent, who has a long history of offensive remarks and videos online, making this one of the most unexpected pickup opportunities of the cycle.

VA-05


D - Challenger: Tom Perriello
R - Incumbent: John McGuire

Former Rep. Tom Perriello pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the cycle in 2008, when he defeated a six-term Republican incumbent by 727 votes. He is hoping to repeat this upset in 2026, running against unpopular first-term Rep. John McGuire. While Trump won by 12.2% in 2024, his margin was more narrow in 2020, at 8.2%. Perriello has outraised McGuire and is putting together a strong operation that can turn out voters in every corner of the district.

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