We're going all in—starting now—to win back the House in 2024.
Democrats lost the House by just 6,675 votes in 2022. That’s field margins—fractions of a percentage point—in just a handful of competitive races. And Democrats only need to net five seats to regain the majority next year. This fight is winnable, so we’re intentionally investing early in an initial slate of 12 districts where our efforts can make the biggest impact.
Six Democratic hold targets
Sixteen red-to-blue flip targets
How we chose these races
➜ Analyzed publicly available data, talked to progressive partners, and gathered election results based on current maps to rank districts based on competitiveness
➜ Prioritized organizing and fundraising potential with our current national membership
➜ Focused on early investment in states that get less attention in the cycle in an effort to move races off the frontlines early
Races in Illinois and Ohio to help Rep. Eric Sorensen (IL-17), Rep. Greg Landsman (OH-01), and Rep. Emilia Sykes (OH-13) present an opportunity to invest early and build infrastructure in states that will not receive significant attention later in the cycle as the presidential race heats up.
In New Mexico, Rep. Gabe Vasquez (NM-02) won his race by less than 1,500 votes in 2022, and will face a strong GOP opponent again in 2024.
Now that the North Carolina GOP has a legislative supermajority, Rep. Don Davis (NC-01) may face a more difficult path to reelection under a GOP-gerrymandered map in 2024.
In New York, the 2022 special election and redistricting delays meant Democrats had to compress a full campaign into a shortened general election window. Rep. Pat Ryan (NY-18) will need early engagement and infrastructure building to help him win.
Blue states—including California and New York—haven’t seen the same level of investment as some of the traditional battlegrounds, and we’re proud to be changing that. We're focusing on CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-45, NY-03, NY-04, NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22, where Biden won big in 2020 but Dems lost by small margins in the 2022 midterms. In CA-13, for example, Democrats lost by fewer than 600 votes.
CO-03 stands out to us because Rep. Lauren Boebert's challenger, Adam Frisch, isn’t just some viral candidate—he has raised a massive amount of money and lost to Boebert in 2022 by an incredibly small margin—just 546 votes—creating the solid foundation for this seat flip in 2024.
OR-05 is another great example of a 10-point swing in a state that will not be a presidential priority in 2024, but is the type of district Democrats need to win in order to flip the House.
We’re also thrilled to be supporting Swing Left alumni—presumptive Democratic nominees who lost their 2022 races by tiny margins and are running again: Kristen Engle in AZ-06, who lost by just 1.4%; Tony Vargas in NE-02, who lost his 2022 race by just 2.6%; and Josh Riley in NY-19 and Ashley Ehasz in PA-01 who lost by just 1.6% and little less than 10% respectively, whom our local groups and volunteers supported with numerous canvasses, bus trips, letters, and phone calls in 2022.
We’re tracking an additional 50+ districts across the country
and anticipate expanding our U.S. House targets gradually over the course of the next six months.
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