November 6, 2024

What’s ahead—and an update on the U.S. House

Since Swing Left was founded in 2017, we have responded to grief, fear, and anxiety with strategic grassroots action. Right now, the losses feel much heavier than the wins. Still, in our country’s darkest chapters, people-powered organizing has always been the path back into the light. ”Only when it's dark enough can we see the stars,” quoted Vice President Kamala Harris in her speech tonight. "Let us fill the sky with the light of a billion stars, the light of optimism, of faith, of trust and service.”


Though the outcome of the presidential race and U.S. Senate control are known entities, the 2024 election isn’t over yet. Republicans gained U.S. House seats today, but Democrats still have a narrow path to flip the chamber, which remains a toss-up. Democratic control would serve as a crucial check on the incoming Trump administration. The below summary, as of today, Wednesday, November 6 at 6pm ET, covers the current state of play and key points. (For up-to-the-minute updates, the AP is your best source.)


We know that each of us is processing this moment differently. Whenever you’re ready to rejoin the fight—if that’s this evening or not for a few weeks or months—we’re here. We’ll stay focused on sharing clear, uncomplicated guidance on how you can help win both the most strategic, immediate races and the long-term battle against MAGA extremism.


As VP Harris said, “When we fight, we win. Sometimes the fight takes a while. That doesn't mean we won't win.”

Our Priority: Help Win the House

The Math: Democrats need to win 218 seats to control the U.S. House of Representatives. As of today, that means we have to hold onto competitive Democratic incumbent seats in OH and NV. We also need to win 4 of our 6 target races in CA, including one open seat (CA-47) and five red-to-blue flips. (Additional details below.)

The Timeline: It is unlikely that we’ll know which party controls the House for several days. Outstanding races, mostly in Arizona and California, are expected to take days or even a week or two before the fate of the House is clear.

The Map: This is of course fluid, but right now, here are the races we’re closely monitoring:

Ballot Curing: This is the process by which voters can fix relatively minor errors on their ballots—such as a signature not matching what’s on file with the DMV, a missing date, etc—to ensure their votes are counted. In elections that come down to a few thousand votes (or fewer), campaigns can identify and reach out to voters whose ballots need to be cured within a certain time period. However, this process requires money and time.

Recounts: In close races, recounts can be requested by a candidate or automatically triggered, depending on state law.

Where Recounts and Ballot Curing will be needed: The most likely races to require these efforts—at the House, Senate, and state legislative levels—are in California, Nevada, Arizona, Oregon, and Washington.

How You Can Help–Right Now: The highest-impact way to support ballot cures and recounts is by donating. We’ve set up this fund, which we’ll update with the races that need our help the most.

Note: For ballot cure and recount efforts alike, there may be a need for some small amount of deeply focused volunteer support, but we have heard from campaigns that large-scale organizing—e.g. buses, mass phone banks, etc.—is not currently a need. We’ll let you know if and when that changes.

What Comes Next

The dust is still settling and our top priority right now is doing all we can to win back the House. But the fight against Trump and MAGA extremism will continue beyond that. In the coming months, we will be sharing our strategy for 2025 and 2026, including:

  • Building power in the states by electing a new generation of leaders – such as state legislators and governors – who are responsible for drawing congressional districts and passing state laws that can protect their residents from an unbridled Trump administration;
  • Contesting vacated House seats in competitive special elections as they arise—as they always do—to secure or defend a Democratic majority;
  • Fighting tooth and nail for every competitive House seat in 2026. Whether or not we win the majority in 2024, winning the House in 2026 will be a critical check on Donald Trump.


Of course, much more to come. Thank you, as always, for being in this fight with us. Even on the hardest of days, we’re so proud to be in community with you.